【讲座题目】China’s Energy Demand – Past, Present, and Future
【主 讲 人】Mark Levine 研究员
The presentation begins with the study by Chinese energy researchers in 1979 that was the dominant influence in Deng Xiaoping’s decree that energy would grow only 2-fold while GDP grew by a factor of 4 between 1980 and 2000. Indeed, energy was even further decoupled from economic growth from 1980 to 2003.
In 2005, the Politburo addressed directly the problem of an energy demand growth that was out of control by establishing firm targets for E/GDP in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2005-2010). Such mandatory targets have been a part of each subsequent FYP, resulting in steadily improving E/GDP and CO2/GDP ratios for the nation. The FYP targets were not easily attained, and required very stringent policies.
The talk concludes by looking at current issues relating to coal-fired power plants and at future energy demand in China through 2050 in light of greenhouse gas emissions.